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peppercorn
(@peppercorn)
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Joined: 7 years ago
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Topic starter  

For my province, this going to be devastating. I suspect 50 % maybe as much as 60 % of the restaurants will be folding from now to fall. Despite what all the governments say with the support they will provide, large blocks of that so called support are really just deferrals and postponements of liabilities. Debt is just going to be pilling up on the backs of people. That debt still has to be paid back when people get back to work, and returning to work isn't something that's going to happen as fast as stopping working was. We are going to be seeing depression level unemployment, and for some time. Brace yourself.

Give a man a gun, and he can rob a bank. Give a man a bank, and he can rob the world.


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helicopilot
(@helicopilot)
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Joined: 9 years ago
Posts: 1490
 

Blessed as we are with 2 incomes, I try my best to support the local economy. We’ve been heading to smaller communities to pick up supplies (not to raid their grocery store however!) paying a small premium but worth it. We’ve been ordering take out food for curb side pickup at a rate we certainly never do just to do our part with small Ma and Pa restaurants, been buying meds at smaller pharmacies rather than our usual and bought a couple cords of wood from a local guy.

I know my disaster spending habits will do nothing to service the economic crisis, but if a few more people keep this going, it may help a few places out.


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Anonymous
(@anonymous)
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Joined: 11 years ago
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Well said and done Heli and as a once upon a time small startup, it does make a difference to keeping one going. At one point, I would make a sale for 70.00 and jump at knowing the bell bill was paid for the month, so ya it does help AND it really helps the morale!

To peppercorn, yah I also see a depression. Agree that most of the current money looks good but it’s mainly deferrals... and for the other amounts, it’s all taxed. Then who will pay for the ginormous, beyond belief debt and deficit? Yah a depression is in my ever so visible and humble opinion 🙄 very much a possibility.

Beyond the obvious impacts, will be the one to groups of people like us. That famed and sadly often fantasized belief or fear of the hordes descending on our twenty steel containers full of gold or silver coins, pate de fois gras or beans is while offered in jest, not completely unrealistic.


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farmgal
(@farmgal)
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Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 2904
 

I personally believe we will be seeing a massive depression at "world war" levels and that we are just at the tip of the iceburg at the moment.. there is a lot of burg not being seen yet.. but its there none the less.

I also am working very hard to support the local in many ways but honestly one of the very first things hubby and I agreed on.. NO outside food or drink.. and its much harder then you would think. but we have not had a single "coffee" or snack or meal etc..

I know it hurts them, but having worked in kitchens and so forth, having taken food safety and so forth and nope. no way.. you can't make me.. I have a hard enough time.. I do not eat in open "see into the kitchen" places and I have even said to hubby move to a different table if you want me to order because I can see 5 things wrong just looking in the door with a sideways glance..

I do miss that freedom.. but NOoooo.

http://livingmydreamlifeonthefarm.wordpress.com/


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peppercorn
(@peppercorn)
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Joined: 7 years ago
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Topic starter  

I friend called me up yesterday. I wasn't aware of it but he had listed his house for sale. He had a buyer for it but the sale was conditional on the buyer selling his house, which if I have the story straight he too did have a buyer but his buyer backed out of the sale do to all the uncertainties. I think its going to be a tough market to sell in, unless its greatly discounted.
Heard from a cousin up by Lloydminister, he tells me the oilfield work is gone, the least amount of work that he has seen in 20 years. He thinks he can pay the bills by doing agricultural welding.

Give a man a gun, and he can rob a bank. Give a man a bank, and he can rob the world.


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peppercorn
(@peppercorn)
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Joined: 7 years ago
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Topic starter  

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52211919

Give a man a gun, and he can rob a bank. Give a man a bank, and he can rob the world.


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Anonymous
(@anonymous)
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Joined: 11 years ago
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Agree with farmgale about depression level numbers.as a past owner of companies, I know how truly hard it is at the beginning and even as you get going. Cash flow are words my children know very well. My barber, opened his first shop on feb 1! He’s up the creek now!
So many small and even medium sized business will be hurt and of course their employees.
With this likely dribbling into 2021, it will be too much for even those who got through the first bout.

Right now, there’s companies still paying employees to work from home...and I can’t see that being the case on round two or three. Anyone with a brain will, after this bout is over and thinking of the next one, will or should keep every penny they have, so no spending on restaurents, movies, trips... that in addition to what farmgal ever so rightfully raises valid concerns over. Nope, ugly ugly and what we are learning on this board is and I am sure will prove to be especially important over the next year or so.

I mentioned hydro power and we should not overlook this item. Everyone is focused on food, money, jobs... but if and when hydro workers get hit, repairs and ongoing maintenance to lines, stations, sub stations may be a real issue. Look how things are folding in various support industries and think of this reoccurring next winter and having maybe 25% less workers out. Guessing crews can’t work as efficiently either, so things slow down for even that. I don’t wish to list all the things that can happen but we do know about Murphy’s law, so try and imagine some other issue, piling on top of what we have. Not hard to see the camels back snapping.

A few months ago, Heli mentioned the usual floods and fires. Imagine hurricanes in the states or even in canada. One cluster F after another hitting flow of business, adding corporate, personal and gov debt like there’s no end. Government debts are through the roof before, now is shear fantasyland. Wild and not good combination of threats.

One thing is certain in my home, foots on the gas peddle in preps and I think I will cut off the break pedal to improve weight and gas consumption 😆


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thecrownsown
(@thecrownsown)
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Joined: 9 years ago
Posts: 867
 

Its really unfortunate that this has occurred. Its a reminder that saving for those stormy times is paramount in preparedness. 3 months living expenses minimal.

For years, there have been newspaper reports of Canadians mounting record personal debt, as well as Governments running huge defecits....well...now we're here. Time will tell I suppose as to what will happen. If all governments put forth a concerted effort the effect may be minimal.

I do not envy any political leader at the moment. No matter what their stripe. There is a delicate balance to walk...hold Covid at bay vs. keeping an economy running. And though most politicians with strong leadership are soaring in the polls...that will only last so long until the reality of not being able to continue our previous lives sets in. At what point is the cure worse then the symptoms as a society? It really is an interesting scenario...who would have thought it would play out like this?

https://www.internationalpreppersnetwork.net/viewtopic.php?f=57&t=7738


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peppercorn
(@peppercorn)
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Joined: 7 years ago
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Topic starter  

I was in the big city yesterday, and a smaller town today and as I usually do, I stuck my head in the doors of the local Walmart, Food for Less and Bulk Barn. Bulk Barn was the only place I bought anything. Some more long term goods.

At the other places, eggs were in short supply, limited flour available, no powdered milk. Meat prices are moving higher from what I can tell, some canned goods look higher in price. At Bulk Barn I noticed when I went down the isle not a single item was on sale, and I think prices are moving up there as well. I am expecting much higher food prices to come. In this more rural town very few people had a mask on, I would guess less than 5 % or so.

Give a man a gun, and he can rob a bank. Give a man a bank, and he can rob the world.


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Learner
(@learner)
Reputable Member
Joined: 9 years ago
Posts: 296
 

Noticed prices going up at Walmart in February. Stuff there went up quite a bit. Canning jars jumped a full dollar a case, canned goods by at least 10 cents or more, depending on what it is. Some of their kids clothes even went up by a dollar (I buy for grandkids).

Went shopping at a town just north of our village yesterday and noticing signs everywhere with shopping, prefer debit or credit. They are pushing that and have said and posted that cash will pass on the virus. Hubby bought something at a small store that he was delivering to and was charged a 25 cent terminal fee for using his debit card.

Interesting news article https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/a-free-for-all-union-wants-grocery-trips-curtailed-to-slow-covid-19-spread-1.4901276


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Anonymous
(@anonymous)
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Per crownsown and others, this is truly going to be interesting and as mentioned, no matter the political strip, they are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. The previous divides will likely remain entrenched but then again, even there, things can shift.
I always enjoyed history and looking at the pre depression and the seventy years that followed, tell many a story to study and see if or how it would fit with our world.

Some form of monetary pain is obvious, will it be devaluation or change that results in one million canadian pesos, being exchanged for five new canucks?

Will we have Soviet style shopping lines, strikes, sabotage, resurgence of terrorism because they see an opportunity, curfews, increased electronic surveillance, neighbors turning into state rats... all very drastic and possible. It’s all a matter of intent. By intent, I mean and without going to far out on a limb here, let’s skip the conspiracy theories and simply stick to what we all know does occur and that is, will some people try and utilize this for political purposes. Be it domestic or other nations looking to take advantage of ones weakness.

Nothing that is occurring was not known to some people, nothing. Because when one studies people, their infrastructure, political strengths or the weaknesses that can be exploited and one runs “scenarios” on them, you can then , with a very fair certainty, predict what then is likely to occur. A type of table top exercise but done with more gusto and calling in anyone with expertise in particular fields and seeing what they have to say. Nothing new here, may be unknown to the public but scenarios are part and parcel of any organized government or even to a smaller scale, a large corporation looking to launch a new product

So from my experience, what we are doing on this board is in fact very wise and while some people are sure that they are right and they are, others may not be to sure and afraid they may be over reacting, a nut, afraid to tell a loved and trusted person on their preps and one of those crazy preppers with half their teeth missing, sitting on twenty thousand rounds of ammo and fifty guns stacked on a concrete wall thirty feet below ground.

Take or leave my various opinions on who is to blame etc but please do trust me when I say, what we do with growing or storing food, water, shelter..... IS most certainly intelligent and justified. You me and what we do is not crazy, but is very wise indeed.

What we are experiencing right now is nothing compared to what can and may very likely will occur. The only thing unknown is, How many pieces of the fragile puzzle will Fall off the table and come into play. The pieces ready to fall off the table are all there and known, it’s simply a matter of if, If a quarter more do, then we will really be in for some interesting times.

The other thing to remember and crown mentioned this, is the after effects, the debt, the political, corporate, fellow employee and neighbor retribution’s. We will have people who lost it all while the neighbor with the government job or pension, just skated right through. A funny thing is occurring in Ottawa today and is a prime example of both people with head up their wazoo and highlighting this very issue. There’s a beautiful section of road along the Rideau canal in downtown ottawa and it’s adjacent to a trendy and fairly wealthy area filled with upper end gov workers and others. The city has said they will close it off to traffic so the locals can get out and walk... BUT they do not want people from other neighborhoods to come and partake! The peasants must remain in their crappy confined quarters while Marie Antoinette and her friends can exchange pleasentries and not need mix with the lesser ones. This despite the fact they already live in nice homes on tree lined roads where walking about is already easy to accomplish. So a clear miscalculated yet very revealing reflection on what may or will occur.

I had indicated before that law enforcement would focus on critical infrastructure and certain neighborhoods and to a lesser yet revealing extent the example just given does valaidate the mindset that will occur should things get worse or even improve. In a country plunged into debt, will the person living in a rural or suburban area get the infrastructure money or will it go to the nicer parts of town? If food, for whatever reason becomes more and more difficult to obtain, where / who will be high on the list. The Walmart worker or VP and Deputy minister? All these very natural factors are and will continue to manifest themselves in the near future and we need to factor them into our actions so we can adapt to them.

I was speaking with an old client the other day and discussing the plans I had put into place for them, seeing how it was all working out ( good) and I reminded him that other shoes would likely drop in the coming months and especially if this keeps being an issue this fall and winter of 21. Namely employee loyalty or lack thereof ( internal theft or embezzlement due to distrust of authority,or retribution for perceived or real wrongs) and further risks to critical infrastructure like power loss during a summer heat wave or next winters storms or other mechanically needed items. As chains weapon, hydro and other workers will not be able to fully maintain services and one should expect more critical items to fail or be slow to repair etc. as workers become sick or just plain tired, they will make mistakes, they may just need a vacation and then less qualified people are left monitoring the grid....

Will we have major labour union issues coming out of this? Enormous debts are not paid off by magical debt fairy, so taxes, who has a job and pensions will all need to be looked at and that will not be taken lying down. If they are not addressed then you have inflation and that begets similar protests, so one way or another, money or lack thereof and in all the ways it impacts us will be one of the things to come out of this.


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thecrownsown
(@thecrownsown)
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Joined: 9 years ago
Posts: 867
 

IMF is reporting there will be a massive shrinking of the global economy this year. The largest since the great depression. It will shrink 3% this year, and rebound next year with a 5.8% growth. Which doesnt sound bad...until you realize its a full year with zero growth and a 2.8% growth the year after...which is compounded growth on 2020 numbers...NOT 2019 where the global economy was larger. And thats IF Covid is under control in the next couple months.

Canada's economy will shrink 6.2% this year....and a growth of 4.2% in 2021.

It makes one think about saving, and budgeting..and tightening the belt so to say to mitigate the "bumpy ride" for the next few years.... but the reality is Canadians have amassed record debt over the years....and even with government stimulus I ponder how this all turns out. Do we as a collective learn our lesson and be more financially responsible, or quickly forget....and continue on as we were.

https://www.internationalpreppersnetwork.net/viewtopic.php?f=57&t=7738


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farmgal
(@farmgal)
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Joined: 10 years ago
Posts: 2904
 

IMF is reporting there will be a massive shrinking of the global economy this year. The largest since the great depression. It will shrink 3% this year, and rebound next year with a 5.8% growth. Which doesnt sound bad...until you realize its a full year with zero growth and a 2.8% growth the year after...which is compounded growth on 2020 numbers...NOT 2019 where the global economy was larger. And thats IF Covid is under control in the next couple months.

Canada's economy will shrink 6.2% this year....and a growth of 4.2% in 2021.

It makes one think about saving, and budgeting..and tightening the belt so to say to mitigate the "bumpy ride" for the next few years.... but the reality is Canadians have amassed record debt over the years....and even with government stimulus I ponder how this all turns out. Do we as a collective learn our lesson and be more financially responsible, or quickly forget....and continue on as we were.

Both, the smart will get smarter and save even more.. and the others.. lalalala.. let go on a cruise honey..

http://livingmydreamlifeonthefarm.wordpress.com/


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thecrownsown
(@thecrownsown)
Prominent Member
Joined: 9 years ago
Posts: 867
 

IMF is reporting there will be a massive shrinking of the global economy this year. The largest since the great depression. It will shrink 3% this year, and rebound next year with a 5.8% growth. Which doesnt sound bad...until you realize its a full year with zero growth and a 2.8% growth the year after...which is compounded growth on 2020 numbers...NOT 2019 where the global economy was larger. And thats IF Covid is under control in the next couple months.

Canada's economy will shrink 6.2% this year....and a growth of 4.2% in 2021.

It makes one think about saving, and budgeting..and tightening the belt so to say to mitigate the "bumpy ride" for the next few years.... but the reality is Canadians have amassed record debt over the years....and even with government stimulus I ponder how this all turns out. Do we as a collective learn our lesson and be more financially responsible, or quickly forget....and continue on as we were.

Both, the smart will get smarter and save even more.. and the others.. lalalala.. let go on a cruise honey..

@farmgal...sometimes you say things that are rather profound and summarize the point perfectly. This would be one of those times.

https://www.internationalpreppersnetwork.net/viewtopic.php?f=57&t=7738


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Anonymous
(@anonymous)
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Joined: 11 years ago
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Nice pickup farmgal! The numbers are huge and all the happy spin thrown out there to detract from reality while effective for some, will still not hide reality.
Lost income is lost income, plain and simple. There are thousands retiring each day and I am guessing, home values will go down and retirement money with them.

Our national debt are rising like a rocket and we all know there’s one taxpayer. Be it direct payroll or tax on products.

And of course, as wild as it sounds, we may only be a fraction of the way through it.

Guaranteed, you will have a large swath of the population seeking more social benefits and the impact to government and corporate pensions will impact us for years and likely cause unions and public to resist talk of reduced benefits. Which, if one looks to the past, means street protests, strikes...

So, as our farmgal states, be smart and save where one can, invest in being more self sufficient or let’s take the cruise, go on a vacation to Mexico on the credit card, rack up debt on an education but then work as a barista ?

From a security perspective, this will be a nightmare. We will have increased street crime, embezzlement or other forms of white collar crime, likely uptick in terrorist or related cultural conflicts within our decaying cities, because if a city like ottawa did not have the money to prevent raw sewage pouring into the ottawa River last year, they sure as heck won’t have it next year to fix new breakdowns let alone old ones. Roads that were falling apart will increasingly breakdown, social housing with rat issues will not suddenly be resolved, homelessness will not be going down but rather up, likely way up! It’s simply impossible to spend all this borrowed money and not have an impact. I think polar opposites of crownsown and I can even agree on that!

If as its highly likely, this continues into the fall and next year, I believe we will have a modern day depression era type come to Jesus moment. Where reality and dealing with past wild spending come face to face and crash. It’s already occurring but I believe most people are in a state of denial and think we will just pop out of it any week now and all will just return to the way it was in early March. It’s really very interesting to watch unfold

One thing that has popped into my little mind is, the value of my land and setup. It should take a hit in value, but I also believe that it may not sink as much as others because of what or how it is setup. Water, wood, ability to grow food, proximity to major city..... the properties some of us have, could not only help sustain us now but help with retirement. I am noodling on purchasing another piece of property so I can transition to it when I am older and need to sell the one I am in now. People with serious money are and will likely continue to want a somewhat safe place to go to. We crazy prepping folks may not look so crazy and if we make our homesteads look half decent, the value may do well. Any projects I do with garden will also be done with a view to trying to make them look clean and organized, something that will be effective for me to grow stuff and also present well to a future buyer. Let’s help turn our brains and lifestyle into a monetary gain.


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